AfrAsia Bank - Annual Report 2015

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AfrAsia Bank Limited and its Group Entities
Annual Report 2015
page 130
MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS (CONTINUED)
Commodity revenue windfall gains enjoyed by resource-rich countries (2002–2015): Sharp declining trends.
Source: “How to manage the commodity roller coaster,” Huff Post, 10 July 2015
Prospects within the euro area
Following the crisis in Greece in early August 2015, the euro area has showed timid signs of recovery amidst lacklustre medium-term
outlook. The support to recovery seemed to be based on weak fundamentals: cheaper oil prices, monetary easing and a weaker euro.
In 2016, growth is expected to reach 1.6%, up from the expected 1.5% in 2015. Downside risks, including stagflation, would tend to prevail
in the medium term, and could possibly extend to 2020.
Emerging economies: Can India’s Elephant take over from the Chinese Dragon?
The size of Asia’s third largest economy, India, is only one-fifth that of China. It is therefore unlikely to be able to provide much support to
global growth of the same order of magnitude as China, which has been acting as the most stable contributor to world economic growth.
Political acrimony is also the order of the day in India, despite Narendra Modi’s landslide victory in 2014, which had fuelled hopes of a
speedy recovery. Long outstanding reforms also seem to be lacking, which could prevent India from fully capitalising on its northern
neighbour’s deepening economic slowdown. Structural reforms remain critical especially in labour markets, the banking sector, tax regime
and land management.
COMMODITY REVENUE WINDFALL
AngolaKuwait
Saudi Arabia
OmanCongo
Republique of
Kazakhstan
Brunei
DarussalamUnited Arab
EmiratesAlgeriaRussia
BahrainNigeriaGabonBolivia
Trinidad and
TobagoEcuadorSuriname
Zambia
NigerPeru
ColombiaCameroonBotswana
o
50
100
150
200
250
300
Commodity Fiscal Revenue Windfall (2012 versus 2002) Commodity Fiscal Revenue Windfall (2015 versus 2002)